According to @KobeissiLetter, the last trade war flare-up began on October 10 when President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on China, and within 16 days the S&P 500 recovered approximately $3 trillion in market capitalization (source: @KobeissiLetter, Jan 17, 2026). According to @KobeissiLetter, they expect a massive market swing this week and urge traders to be ready for significant volatility (source: @KobeissiLetter, Jan 17, 2026). According to @KobeissiLetter, the note focuses on S&P 500 reactions to tariff headlines and does not specify sectors, tickers, or cryptocurrencies (source: @KobeissiLetter, Jan 17, 2026).

According to @MilkRoadDaily, China responded to Trump’s tariff threat with new port fees, sanctions, and regulatory probes, which coincided with approximately $1.2 billion in liquidations and a broad selloff across risk assets, according to @MilkRoadDaily. According to @MilkRoadDaily, the episode was characterized as a stress test rather than a full market meltdown, indicating elevated but contained volatility for crypto markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 has risen to 43% following President Trump's announcement of potential new tariffs. This increased risk of economic slowdown is expected to heighten volatility across risk assets, including Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies, as traders may seek safe-haven alternatives or adjust positions in response to macroeconomic uncertainty (Source: The Kobeissi Letter via Twitter, Kalshi). Crypto traders should monitor cross-asset flows and US economic data closely for potential price swings.